Avalanche Advisory Archive Pre-2016

Date Issued:2016-02-29
Danger:2
Trend:3
Probability:3
Size:2
Problem:7
Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 41. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG LATE. LOWS AROUND 32.
NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

TUESDAY...PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 40.
NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU...EXCEPT EAST
WIND 10 MPH ELSEWHERE.

Temperatures over the last 36 hours have slowly fallen to the point of freezing and below... The Mt Roberts Tram had a high of 35f yesterday and is currently right at 32f degrees. The Tram received 18mm of precipitation that left 4cm of heavy wet new snow. Winds were light out of the South primarily.

This is very high density wet snow coming down on a very wet bed surface. Bonding will vary greatly depending on elevation and what the warming and/or sun does today.

Eaglecrest was slightly cooler. Currently its 33f at the base, 29f at mid mountain and 29f on top. Eaglecrest picked up a little more precipitation with 21.3mm and 9cm of wet new snow.

Again bonding will very in relation to the snow line, sunshine, and warming today. The more sun and warming the more likely this new snow is to fail off the old snow surface mostly as wet loose avalanches later today. But be aware that you may still see deeper wet slab avalanches in steeper unanchored areas.

With no real precipitation in the forecast for today and the forecast calls for clouds as well. Avalanche danger is MODERATE today. Natural Avalanches are still possible as are human triggered avalanches. Yet sizes should be quite small.

With the slight cooling and clouds predicted the deeper instabilities should decrease a little but this snowpack is quite rotten and isothermal with poor bonds throughout in places. It will take more cooling and a longer period of it to bring danger completely to low.

Tip:

Here is a link to an interesting paper.

Heuristic Traps in Recreational Avalanche Accidents: Evidence and Implications

http://www.aiare.info:8072/SuperContainer/RawData/Instructors/Articles_of_interest/623?a=1

LIVE TO RIDE ANOTHER DAY!

Eaglecrest is hosting an Backcountry Safety Awareness and Companion Rescue Course Saturday March 5th from 8:30am-3:30pm.

This course is free and sponsored by the Department of Public Safety.

During this day long course you will learn about avalanche terrain, weather, and stability assessment tests. You will also learn about Avalanche Rescue as well as transceiver, probe and shovel use.

Please share this offering with your friends. Lets all do out part to maintain a safe backcountry community.

For more information or to sign up please email Tom.Mattice@juneau.org