Avalanche Advisory Archive Pre-2016

Date Issued:2016-02-04
Danger:2
Trend:4
Probability:3
Size:2
Problem:3
Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL 1500
FEET. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 35
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS 33 TO 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH IN
THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE.

FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 1300 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 39. EAST WIND 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

Good morning Juneau! Special Thanks to the Juneau Snowmobile Club for having me out to their meeting last night to discuss avalanche safety!

Temperatures warmed a little yesterday. The tram summit passed through freezing last night around midnight and remains at 34f this morning. Eaglecrest is a little cooler with 35f at the base, 32f at powder patch and 30f on top.

Even though quite warm and above freezing on both of our Mt Weather sites we stayed in snow. The Mt Roberts Tram received about 7cm of new snow from about 2.8mm of precipitation. Eaglecrest was much the same showing 2.8mm of precipitation for 6cm of new snow. With the temperatures as warm as they are and snow densities under 5% this is showing us some windloading on these sights as well.

Winds are considerable this morning with the Tram blowing 10-20 gusting 30mph our of the SE. Eaglecrest is a little stronger with winds from 15-25 gusting to 35mph.

With windloading over the last 48 hours and a little new snow, with continued considerable winds today as well as another 1\" of precip in the forecast for the next 24 hours natural and man made avalanches are both possible. This one inch of precip could end up as 10\" of snow at upper elevations tomorrow and much more in wind loaded areas.

Be aware as precip rates increase and the storm starts to accumulate more new snow danger levels will increase especially in windloaded areas.

Avalanche danger is Moderate today. Although slide sizes would be relatively small in the urban environment.

Please use caution in the backcountry as this storm continues.

As we look at weather for the next few days it appears we have roughly 2.45\" of rain in the forecast for the next 60 hours. This loading rate is considerable all by itself. Saturday appears to deliver nearly 1\" of rain over a 12 hour period. Avalanche danger will be HIGH at that time.

Be safe out there and have a great day!

Tip:

Eaglecrest is hosting an Backcountry Safety Awareness and Companion Rescue Course Saturday March 5th from 8:30am-3:30pm.

This course is free and sponsored by the Department of Public Safety.

During this day long course you will learn about avalanche terrain, weather, and stability assessment tests. You will also learn about Avalanche Rescue as well as transceiver, probe and shovel use.

Please share this offering with your friends. Lets all do out part to maintain a safe backcountry community.

For more information or to sign up please email [email protected]