Avalanche Advisory Archive Pre-2016

Date Issued:2016-02-25
Danger:3
Trend:3
Probability:4
Size:2
Problem:7
Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 44. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 45. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO
15 MPH.

Forecast models show as much as 2.25\" of precipitation over the Juneau Region in the next 36 hours.

Temperatures are warm around the region this morning.

Yesterday morning temperatures were right at freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram summit and quickly warmed. By the noon hour temperatures at the tram summit were hovering around 38f.

These temperatures carried over to Douglas Island as well with a mid mountain high of 36f.

Temperatures never cooled off much overnight. Currently the Tram summit is 35f. Eaglecrest is 38f at the base, 34f at mid mountain and just above freezing at 32f on top.

We received a fair amount of precipitation over the last 24 hours as well with most of that coming in the last 12 hours. Eaglecrest picked up 13mm of precip and lost 2cm of snow. The tram picked up 16mm of precip and stayed the same on snowpack.

Our snowpack at mid mountain elevation is becoming saturated and this will only increase with the warm temps and increased rains over the next 36 hours.

There hasn't been much new snow at upper elevations over the last week but what little new snow we have received over the last week will be weak as it becomes heavily saturated as well.

At uppermost elevations today you may snee a sittle in the way of snow. This snow is also quite wet.

Winds are 10-15mph at tram summit and closer to 20-30mph at the Eaglecrest summit.

Over the next 12 hours the forecast calls for .78\" of precipitation the following 12 hours we could see as much as 1\".

At these temperatures this rain event will quickly erode bonds in the snowpack and weaken it. Look to see any new snow from the last week in steep open areas cleaning off or rocks, trees, and steep open pitches with few or no anchors. Look to see super steep convex slopes becoming weak as the snowpack becomes further saturated we may see larger wet slabs in these areas.

With these very warm temps and heavy rains avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at this time. Both natural and human triggered avalanches are possible.

Continue to avoid areas of glide as well recognizing this rain event can increase base layer lubrication. These slides are very hard to predict but remember to avoid glide prone areas.

Tip:

Here is a great article on decision making.

http://www.aiare.info:8072/SuperContainer/RawData/AIARE_1/Instructor_resources/200?a=1

LIVE TO RIDE ANOTHER DAY!

Eaglecrest is hosting an Backcountry Safety Awareness and Companion Rescue Course Saturday March 5th from 8:30am-3:30pm.

This course is free and sponsored by the Department of Public Safety.

During this day long course you will learn about avalanche terrain, weather, and stability assessment tests. You will also learn about Avalanche Rescue as well as transceiver, probe and shovel use.

Please share this offering with your friends. Lets all do out part to maintain a safe backcountry community.

For more information or to sign up please email Tom.Mattice@juneau.org