Avalanche Advisory Archive Pre-2016

Date Issued:2016-02-21
Danger:2
Trend:3
Probability:2
Size:2
Problem:3
Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 43. EAST
WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG LATE. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET.
LOWS AROUND 34. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 MPH LATE.

MONDAY...PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW
LEVEL 1000 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 42. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

Temperatures warmed up quite a bit yesterday. We started off yesterday morning with temperatures in the 20's. Mt Roberts was 29f and Eaglecrest was 27f at mid mountain. By 10am yesterday they had climbed above freezing. Yesterdays high was 38f at tram summit and 36f at Eaglecrest mid mountain. Currently its 35f at the Mt Roberts Tram summit and 34f at Eaglecrest mid mountain powder patch. Eaglecrest base is around 35f this morning and the top is just under freezing at 31f.

Yesterday we received the first new snow in over a week. But only about 2.5\" at Eaglecrest. We had moderate windloading during the event that continued yesterday from time to time. Winds from 20-25 loaded the SW facing slopes.

This snow did not bond well to the old snow surface for the most part but that may have improved since with the warm temps from yesterday. The bond at the old snow, new snow interface is one you will want to look at today if you are making stability decision on your own.

For the more part we did not have enough snow to build large slabs and create widespread danger. Yet if you find areas with enough snow deposit it definitely has weakness.

Yesterday I spotted one relatively large (considering the current conditions) natural avalanche that came off of showboat ridge. The crown was over 3' in depth. So we have some weak layers and areas of weakness that are unstable enough that they naturally avalanched. Recognize if you find similar areas that have not yet slid due to lack of a trigger you may find similar weakness.

With this in mind I am keeping avalanche danger at MODERATE to Considerable. With not much precip in the forecast and moderately warm temperatures natural avalanches are possible yet not highly likely. Human triggered avalanches remain possible in areas where we have enough snow accumulation to create and build a slab.

Recognize the primary concern would be windslabs anywhere there is enough accumulation to create them.

The secondary concern would be from wet loose avalanches. With really warm above freezing temps again today it wont take much snow falling off of rocks or trees to entrain additional snows to form wet loose avalanches. These will be smaller and slower yet can still take you off your feet and bury you if the terrain is advanced enough.

Have a great day and be safe out there.

Tip:

Here is a great link to a quick read on Leave No Trace Backcountry Ethics.

https://utahavalanchecenter.org/winter-backcountry-leave-no-trace-lnt-ethics

LIVE TO RIDE ANOTHER DAY!

Eaglecrest is hosting an Backcountry Safety Awareness and Companion Rescue Course Saturday March 5th from 8:30am-3:30pm.

This course is free and sponsored by the Department of Public Safety.

During this day long course you will learn about avalanche terrain, weather, and stability assessment tests. You will also learn about Avalanche Rescue as well as transceiver, probe and shovel use.

Please share this offering with your friends. Lets all do out part to maintain a safe backcountry community.

For more information or to sign up please email Tom.Mattice@juneau.org