Avalanche Advisory Archive Pre-2016

Date Issued:2016-02-19
Danger:1
Trend:4
Probability:0
Size:2
Problem:9
Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

STRONG WIND IN EFFECT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 33.
NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS.

TONIGHT...CLOUDY...LOCALLY WINDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN. LOWS AROUND 29. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH...EXCEPT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE EVENING NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS.

SATURDAY...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH...MAINLY IN THE
MENDENHALL VALLEY. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 800 FEET. HIGHS AROUND
36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

After our 8+ day stretch with above freezing temps and rain to tram summit level things have cooled off for the last 72 hours. Three mornings ago the tram summit temp was 36. By yesterday morning it had dropped to 22f. Today we are a brisk 19f. First time back into the teens in some time. This has helped solidify the snowpack in place.

Avalanche danger is LOW at this time and things are quite stable.

Remember that Glide remains an issue. Continue to look for areas of glide and remember they are unpredictable and should be avoided.

Winds are blowing both yesterday and today and some wind transport occurred. Wind transport was limited due to the fact we have not had much recent snowfall easily available for transport. But recognize it has built shallow wind slabs in the upper elevation start zones near summit and ridgeline that may become an issue as we begin to see new loading.

The forecast calls for snows tonight leading into tomorrow. This will occur during continued winds. The snow will start off cold and freezing levels will rise throughout the storm.

At a glance you can see 3 red flag indicators emerging of increasing avalanche danger for tomorrow.

Forecast volumes are light so we may not end up seeing much danger but recognize that danger levels will probably increase tonight into tomorrow and Sunday.

COME ON SNOW>>>

Tip:

Check out the work of Drew Hardesty and the Utah Avalanche Center with this video on Backcountry Responsibility. Social responsibility in avalanche terrain is an ethic worth supporting and promoting.

https://vimeo.com/155468785

LIVE TO RIDE ANOTHER DAY!

Eaglecrest is hosting an Backcountry Safety Awareness and Companion Rescue Course Saturday March 5th from 8:30am-3:30pm.

This course is free and sponsored by the Department of Public Safety.

During this day long course you will learn about avalanche terrain, weather, and stability assessment tests. You will also learn about Avalanche Rescue as well as transceiver, probe and shovel use.

Please share this offering with your friends. Lets all do out part to maintain a safe backcountry community.

For more information or to sign up please email Tom.Mattice@juneau.org