Avalanche Advisory Archive Pre-2016

Date Issued:2016-01-22
Danger:2
Trend:2
Probability:4
Size:1
Problem:3
Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...RAIN DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES STEADY
AROUND 36 TO 42. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

TONIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN LATE. SNOW LEVEL 1100 FEET LATE. LOWS 32 TO 37...COLDEST IN THE MENDENHALL VALLEY. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

SATURDAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 1100 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 37.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND
10 TO 20 MPH.

Good morning Juneau. At 6:30am temperatures atop the Mt Roberts Tram are at 35f. While Eaglecrest is showing 37f at the base. 34f at powder patch and 32 on top.

Winds are considerable ranging 20 to 30mph.

The Tram wx station received about 12mm of precip which started as 7cm of new snow before warming and rains left us with about 3cm of new snow.

The Eaglecrest mid mountain station received 17.3mm of precip in the last 24 hours and 10.3cm of new snow. The snow came in at about 10% density for the first 10mm of precip and then turned to slush and rain adding another 7mm precip with no snow accumulation.

Temperatures rose about 4f degrees during this event leaving a slightly upside down snowpack in places that have not completely wetted out.

We have a little new snow at upper elevations that is seeing more heavy wet snow and rains. We have had considerable winds.

Human triggered avalanches are possible in wind loaded areas. You may also see wet loose avalanches or wet slabs depending on elevation and aspect.

With precipitation rates moderate and diminishing natural avalanches are less likely. We may still see small wet loose avalanches occurring naturally in steep unsupported areas.

With Human triggered avalanches possible in places and natural avalanches possible but less likely Avalanche Danger is Moderate today. With precipitation rates lowering avalanche danger should reduce over the next 24 hours before a new wave of moisture on Saturday leaves us something new to consider.

Tip:

There have been a tremendous number of avalanche fatalities and close calls along the Rockies in the last week. They have a deep facet problem that has been reactivated by a series of big storms increasing the load on the snowpack. There are certain times you just need to be conservative and stick to low angle terrain. Give things time and it may heal to a degree but they are going to have a long winter along the Rockies.

Learn more about avalanche safety from reading the accident reports available online at the American Avalanche Association website.

http://avalanche.org/accidents.php