Avalanche Advisory Archive 2016 – 2018

Date Issued:2017-03-08 07:03:38
Danger:2
Primary Trend:1
Primary Probability:3
Primary Likelihood:2
Primary Size:2
Primary Description:

With several days of windloading... several days of both natural and human triggered avalanches and continued winds... be aware human triggered avalanches remain possible in isolated windloaded areas.

Secondary Trend:1
Secondary Probability:8
Secondary Likelihood:2
Secondary Size:1
Secondary Description:

Be aware these windy conditions have built our a number of cornices around the region... Recognize they are weak and hard to predict. Always give a wide margin of error in traveling around cornices over areas with consequence.

Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

Today- Mostly cloudy. Locally windy. Highs around 21. Northeast wind 15 to 25 mph. Near downtown juneau and douglas, northeast wind to 30 mph with gusts to around 45 mph.

Tonight- Mostly cloudy. Locally windy. Lows 10 to 16. Northeast wind 10 to 20 mph. Near downtown juneau and douglas, northeast wind to 30 mph with gusts to around 45 mph.

Thursday- Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs around 20. Northeast wind 25 mph.

We have been several days without snows now. This helps give the snowpack time to settle and bond. The winds have stripped and deposited a great deal of snow over the last several days resulting in both natural and human triggered avalanches.

We have some significant weakness in the snowpack in places yet the slab is getting stiffer and windloading is decreasing.

Temperatures are up a little this morning. Mt Roberts is showing 7f and Eaglecrest is 9f at the base and 5f on top.

Winds remain in effect with Eaglecrest at 15-20 and the tram at 25-30 gusting higher on ridgeline and summit.

The snow available for transport is diminishing yet danger lingers. Also be aware that weakness in the backcountry in isolated locations avalanche danger is MODERATE today with natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Be aware of windloaded areas especially steep faces, convex rollovers, unsupported slabs over cliffs, rocks etc...

Tip:

The last weeks storm cycle that hit Juneau traveled south and hit lower SE even harder... as well as Canada and on down to Washington... This was a big storm with obvious red flags of avalanche danger... Yet we had people in SE Alaska caught in avalanches... as well as people buried and killed in both Canada and Washington...

As a community we have to continue to find a way to do better... remember when danger levels rise dial it back... have an avi danger day plan... know where you can ski your favorite tree lines or lower angle slopes...

Sometimes Mother Nature speaks to you... and when she does we need to talk to our partners, make conservative decisions and micro manage our terrain strategies...

I am proud we have had no fatalaties in Juneau due to avalanches in some time. Thank you to each and every one of you for making a difference... Remember to practice safety at all times... and have the transceiver, probe, shovel, partner and a plan for when things don't...

Forecaster:Tom Mattice