Avalanche Advisory Archive 2016 – 2018

Date Issued:2017-03-06 06:41:55
Danger:3
Primary Trend:1
Primary Probability:3
Primary Likelihood:3
Primary Size:2
Primary Description:

Winds remain strong around the region. We have seen windloading for several days from 15-60mph winds. We have seen natural and human triggered slides both on this weakness.

This slab is getting a little stiffer and yet weakness remains present. Be cautious of windloaded areas. Recognize danger is considerable in these areas.

Secondary Trend:2
Secondary Probability:8
Secondary Likelihood:2
Secondary Size:2
Secondary Description:

With all these winds be really thinking of how cornices form and avoiding them during these big building periods.

Cornices are tricky to forecast and new ones remain weak for some time.

Be aware the current cornices may have built up a great deal over the last several days.

Use caution in these areas.

Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

Today- Mostly cloudy. Highs around 21. North wind 25 mph. Near downtown juneau and douglas, gusts to around 50 mph.

Tonight- Mostly cloudy. Lows 6 to 14. North wind 25 mph. Near downtown juneau and douglas, gusts to around 55 mph.

Tuesday- Mostly cloudy. Highs around 21. North wind 25 mph... Except northeast 40 mph with gusts to around 55 mph near downtown juneau and douglas.

Temperatures remain quite cold around the region This morning Eaglecrest is 7f at the base, 2f mid mountain and -1f on summit. Winds are blowing 12-20 and expected to pick up more.

We have not seen any new snow in the last 3 days. This has given the snowpack a little time to start the healing process. Settling and bonding slowly over time to itself and to the old bed surface.

Avalanche danger was very high for the last several days with a great deal of windloading and natural avalanches spotted on most every aspect. But of course even more so in windloaded areas. Human triggered avalanches have also been quite common over the last several days.

With several day so of high winds the amount of new snow available for wind transport has diminished a great deal. This will slow the windloading rates and reduce danger of natural avalanches.

It is important to remember that with widespread natural and human triggered avalanches over the last several days the snowpack is showing a great deal of weakness. The mouse trap has been set... so regardless of new snow and windloading if a person ventures into the wrong place the chance of triggering a slide is still quite high.

With continued winds today from 15-50 in the forecast natural avalanches remain possible, and yet human triggered avalanches are more likely. Avalanche Danger is CONSIDERABLE. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making remain essential.

This hazard will continue to stabilize over time and yet with these cold temps it takes the snowpack longer to heal.

Be safe out there and enjoy another great day.

Tip:

When is the last time you practiced with your avalanche transceiver??? Taken a medical refresher? Discussed your emergency plans with your backcountry partners.

Dont let things go assumed... You should know what gear you and your partners posses... you should have a plan laid out for different scenarios... and you should practice your plan with your equipment as a group.

Please take the 2-4 minutes it takes a a trailhead to host these conversations... Bury a transceiver and practice to show your partner you have his/her back... and ask them to do the same...

Some people say there are no friends on powder days... I say there are only BEST friends and Trained Friends on powder days...

Stay safe out there!

Forecaster:Tom Mattice