Avalanche Advisory Archive 2016 – 2018

Date Issued:2016-12-26 06:32:40
Danger:1
Primary Trend:3
Primary Probability:3
Primary Likelihood:2
Primary Size:1
Primary Description:

With low danger and new snow coming in... during these 10-20mph winds... look to see windloading occurring and look for weakness in shallow windslabs in the starting zones as time continues. The more snow and wind we get in the next 24 hours the more this condition will change...

Secondary Trend:3
Secondary Probability:2
Secondary Likelihood:1
Secondary Size:2
Secondary Description:

Our primary snowpack from earlier this weeks storm is fairly stable and solid in place. With good powder and layering danger is LOW in this layer... with new snow and warming over the next 24 hours look to see how it effects the deeper weak layers in place. These older weak layers may come to play as the load increases but my guess is with low volumes in the forecast these deeper layers will remain strong.

Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

Today- Snow. Rain likely in the afternoon. Snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches. Highs around 35. East wind 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight- Snow likely. Snow accumulation 1 to 3 inches. Lows around 31. Southeast wind 10 mph in the evening becoming light and variable.

Tuesday- Rain showers and snow showers. Snow accumulation to 3 inches. Snow level 400 feet. Highs around 36. South wind 10 mph.

We had a big storm earlier in the week with 82cm of new snow over 4 days. These deeper layers are stable for the most part.

Over the last few days we experienced some cool temperatures with low humidity... Look to see surface hoar development on the old snowpack surface. This could come into play as more new snow come in and the load continues to build.

The snowpack settled a great deal and stability is good. We have seen almost 3\" of new snow in the last 12 hours at Eaglecrest and a little less at the tram. These volumes will continue to build but currently the loading rate is minimal and shouldn't change snowpack stability too much in the short run. Winds have been light... with 10-20mph winds. These are enough to create windloading on the faceted surface hoar in place... look for weakness in these areas. Especially as the load continues to incease from both wind and snow.

The forecast calls for slight cooling over the next 24 hours with less than 4\" new snow and mild 5-10mph winds. Although this will increase danger levels some... all these rates are mild and conditions should remain fairly stable with exception of any areas that pick up appreciable windload.

Be safe out there and have an amazing day!!! Happy Holidays.

Tip:

Here is a link to 5 mini exercises where you can practice your own forecasting ability.

https://www.meted.ucar.edu/afwa/avalanche/navmenu.php?tab=1&page=4.0.0

Forecaster:Tom Mattice