Avalanche Advisory Archive 2016 – 2018

Date Issued:2016-12-24 06:47:29
Danger:1
Primary Trend:1
Primary Probability:2
Primary Likelihood:2
Primary Size:2
Primary Description:

Huge storm deposits take time to heal. Be aware this may be a concern in steep open unanchored areas near summit and ridgeline. Likelihood of these slides is very low yet consequence would be quite high. Make sure to use good practices on bit terrain with spotters in place.

Secondary Trend:1
Secondary Probability:3
Secondary Likelihood:2
Secondary Size:2
Secondary Description:

Wind simply adds to the storm slab sterss in these windloaded areas near summit and ridgeline. Often times deeper slabs are harder to release. The only reason this danger is below storm slab danger today is due to the healing process... my assumption is it may be harder to trigger these deeper slabs.

Once again likelihood is very low... yet consequence its high so pay some attention in these windloaded areas.

Discussion:

We have seen a great deal of snow around the region over the last 7 days. But the last 3 days have been fairly calm.

The storm started last Saturday with high winds and heavy snow for days on end. The winds pushed hard early in the storm cycle building large windslabs in places. The storm totals reached over 30\" at mid mountain elevations and much higher totals near summit.

It takes time for these large volumes of snow to settle bond, and heal. The weak layers that were active two and three days ago have stabilized for the most part and returned dormant.

The near freezing temperatures we had during the storm helped in this rapid healing.

With low winds for 48hours now... and no new snow Avalanche Danger is LOW at this time. Natural avalanches are unlikely. There is a remote possibility human triggered avalanches may still be possible in isolated places near to summit and ridgeline. Steep convex rollovers with no anchors that were loaded up during this storm should be treated with respect and caution... but in general its a great day to get out and chase some fun...

The National Weather Service has forecast:

Today- Increasing clouds. Patchy freezing fog early in the morning. Highs 22 to 28. Northeast wind 10 mph.

Tonight- Mostly cloudy. Lows 11 to 17. Northeast wind 10 mph.

Christmas Day- Slight chance of snow in the morning...then snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation to 2 inches. Highs around 32. Southeast wind 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday Night- Snow. Lows 28 to 34. Southeast wind 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 40 mph.

With increased clouds in the forecast and new snow on the way today is a great day to get out and shred whats left in the nice weather! Be safe out there and Merry Christmas Everyone!!!

Tip:

Here is a link to a good quick read on avalanche stability-

http://www.snowman-jim.org/papers/rambler.html

Stay safe my friends and Merry Christmas to you and your family!

Forecaster:Tom Mattice